Mfume CAN Beat Steele

One perspective about the '06 Senate race in Maryland that has upset me, has been one that assumes, for several reasons, that Kweisi Mfume cannot beat Michael Steele. One of the strongest indicators of this was the early polling, which had Mr. Mfume trailing Steele by over 5 points.

July 18, 2005 (Rasmussen):

Ben Cardin (D) 45%
Michael Steele (R) 40%
Other 4%

Kweisi Mfume (D) 40%
Michael Steele (R) 47%
Other 4%

Lets look how things were in February of this year.

February 19, 2006 (Rasmussen):

Ben Cardin (D) 49%
Michael Steele (R) 35%

Kweisi Mfume (D) 41%
Michael Steele (R) 42%

Looking at this is seems like both Cardin and Mfume have improved against Steele, but Cardin still appears to be the "safe" candidate. Now look at the most recent Rasmussen poll.

August 9, 2006 (Rasmussen):

Ben Cardin (D) 47%
Michael Steele (R) 42%

Kweisi Mfume (D) 46%
Michael Steele (R) 44%

The trend looks good for both candidates, but even better for Mfume. Cardin began the race with a lead. Mfume began down 7 points and is beginning to pull ahead of Steele. With Cardin running as more of a presumed incumbent in the race, it will interesting to see what happens if Mr. Mfume continues to climb in the polls against Steele. The more Mfume looks able to beat Steele in November, the more primary votes I think he will peel away from Mr. Cardin in September.

1 comment:

Bruce Godfrey said...

The stronger Mfume looks, the stronger he will be in my view, as (predominantly) white liberals decide that a vote for Mfume is "safe" i.e. does not jeopardize a blue seat, and is the best way to stick it to President Bush. Particularly in Montgomery County where hard-core sapphire voters might just pull the lever for Mfume.