Thoughts on the Mason-Dixon Senate Poll

New MD Senate Poll


Mason-Dixon for MSNBC. 10/31-11/3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/17-19)

Cardin (D) 47 (47)
Steele (R) 44 (41)

So Steele has something that appears to be momentum, but with 9% undecided, who can really tell how this race looks right now. I still believe that there will be record turnout tomorrow, and that will put Cardin on top.

But do you want to know what will really take Cardin over the top (from the same poll):

Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for U.S. Senate this year:

IRAQ 31%
ECONOMY/JOBS 13%
TERRORISM/SECURITY 10%

Cardin is right on Iraq. Steele's biggest misstep this year was saying he would still support invading Iraq today. That will hurt him a good bit.

Also, maybe someone else can tell me, is this too low a percentage of Baltimore City voters? 8% seems low to me, and it also seems like it would be a large area of support for Cardin and O'Malley/Brown. If the polling in the city was too low, this poll could be showing Cardin and O'Malley/Brown lower than they should be.

EAST SHORE/SOUTHERN MD 12%
BALTIMORE COUNTY 15%
BALTIMORE CITY 8%
CENTRAL MD 23%
PRINCE GEORGES CO 14%
MONTGOMERY CO 18%
WESTERN MD 10%

Now, I have been volunteering in the city for the past few weeks, and the GOTV operation is well run and well staffed. If the Maryland Democratic Party gets the city above 8%, we should all be pretty happy come tomorrow night. I will be part of that GOTV effort, starting tomorrow at 8 am.

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